International Herald Tribune
How different groups feel about Cuba, Cuban leader Fidel Castro
The Associated Press
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
Demographics and details from the AP-Ipsos poll on Cuba, Cuban leader
Fidel Castro and U.S.-Cuba policy. The poll was conducted Jan. 30-Feb. 1
by Ipsos, an international polling firm:
OVERALL: A majority in the United States, 54 percent, say it is unlikely
that Cuba will trade dictatorship for democracy when Fidel Castro dies
or permanently steps down as president of Cuba. Just 40 percent think
democracy is likely. However, 51 percent think the Cuban people will be
better off after Castro, while 38 percent say the Cuban people will be
about as well off after Castro as they were under his regime, and 4
percent think they will be worse off. Most, 64 percent, say they have an
unfavorable opinion of Fidel Castro, and just 6 percent say they have a
favorable opinion of him. Perhaps more surprisingly, more than a
quarter, 27 percent, of Americans — especially young adults — say they
haven't yet heard enough about Castro to have an opinion of him.
HISPANICS, YOUNG PEOPLE MORE OPTIMISTIC: A majority of Hispanics, 54
percent, think it is likely that Castro's regime will be replaced with a
democracy. Just 38 percent of non-Hispanics believe that will happen.
And 70 percent of Hispanics think Cubans will be better off after Castro
is gone, compared with 53 percent of non-Hispanics. Young people are
also more optimistic than older people about Cuba's future. Just 41
percent of those 65 and older believe the Cuban people will be better
off after Castro, while majorities in the younger age brackets believe
Cubans will be better off.
TRADE, DIPLOMACY: Almost two thirds, 62 percent of Americans, think the
U.S. should establish diplomatic relations with Cuba, but nearly half
favor continuing the trade embargo. When asked whether the United States
should continue the trade embargo with Cuba or end it and permit normal
trade, 48 percent said the trade embargo should be continued while just
40 percent said the embargo should be ended. Men, 70 percent, were more
likely than women, 55 percent, to believe that diplomatic relations
should be established. Those in the West, 69 percent, and Midwest, 67
percent, were more likely to believe that the United States should
establish diplomatic relations with Cuba, while those in the Northeast,
63 percent, and South, 55 percent, were less likely.
The AP-Ipsos poll on public attitudes towards Fidel Castro and Cuba was
conducted among 1,000 adults by telephone from Jan. 30 to Feb. 1, 2007
by Ipsos, an international public opinion company. The margin of
sampling error for all adults is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Analysis by Associated Press Manager of News Surveys Trevor Tompson, AP
News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and AP writer Will Lester.